The Autumn of the World Cup 2026 Qualifiers in Europe - Who Won’t Make It?
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The autumn of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in Europe promises to be dramatic and unforgiving. The layout of qualifying is such that 12 European groups feed into a set of play‑offs, with four extra slots awarded via a mix of runners-up and Nations League placements. The margin for error shrinks as autumn matches decide who goes through and who does not. Below are some of the most dangerous scenarios: nations many would expect to qualify, but which might stumble.
Group I risks and Italy’s fragility
Italy lands in Group I alongside Norway, Israel, Estonia, and Moldova. On paper, Italy should take the top spot and be set to finish 1‑2 in the group. But Italy’s form in recent years lacks consistency. Norway, riding a wave of confidence around its attack, may push for first place or at least force Italy into a harder path. If Italy drops to second, then they must survive the play‑offs—not a guaranteed route. An upset or two in autumn (especially away to Norway or in tricky matches abroad) might cost them direct qualification.
That's a lot of ifs, but such is the nature of sports predictions. In the Israel vs Italy, Israel might be the underdog with +750, where analysts predicted that Italy would win vs Israel 2‑1, but we’ve seen plenty of underdog movies and how they play out; in this case, Italy struggled to win, with the final result 5:4 (no penalties). Tips and info help move the scales towards a desirable outcome, as fans and bettors place their predictions for the upcoming matchups. Norway is second in line with 1.20 odds, so it's worth keeping an eye on them. With insights from Escapist Magazine list of sites for in-depth online analysis and smooth betting and similar resourceful references, fans have a solid foundation to build their predictions on.
Group A or groups with Germany/Italy crossover
Because some groups include the loser of a Nations League tie between Germany and Italy, there’s uncertainty in how strong that entrant will be. If the “loser” is weaker or shaken, it opens a door for others. In Group A, for instance, the entrant might lack momentum or cohesion. A misstep by Germany or Italy in their Nations League tie could ripple through the qualification group, giving a surprise chance to Slovakia or Northern Ireland. One bad match can change everything.
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Belgium and the legacy of transition
Belgium finds itself in Group J with Wales, North Macedonia, Kazakhstan, and Liechtenstein. In many observers’ eyes, Belgium still commands talent, but its golden generation ages, and replacing leaders is never clean. With 12 goals in 2 matches so far for Belgium, things are looking great, but they need to keep that momentum going. Wales, rebuilding post‑superstar era, and North Macedonia, skilled at pulling surprises, may push Belgium toward a slip. If Belgium drops to second, or stutters and allows North Macedonia to take the group, that would mark a striking failure for a nation once considered perennial.
Scotland, Czechia, and Montenegro in a tight group
In Group L, Croatia and Czechia lie in contention, with Montenegro and weaker sides trailing. Czechia may have the quality to challenge, but Croatia—without its past leaders—may falter. If Croatia loses direct qualification and drops to second, Czechia might take the top spot. Montenegro, while unlikely to overhaul both, could meddle in point outcomes. If Croatia or Czechia falters in head-to-head, one of them might miss out entirely or fall into the play‑offs with risk.
England’s group and potential surprises
England’s group seems favorable: Serbia, Albania, Latvia, and Andorra. Many will assume England wins comfortably. But Serbia has enough firepower to challenge, especially in away matches. If England underestimates a game or drops points at home with injury strains, then second place becomes a threat. It’s unlikely that England will entirely fail to qualify, but the margin might get tight: likely through the group or the play‑offs, not always clean.
France / Croatia slot and the danger for France
In the group that includes France or Croatia (depending on the Nations League path), one of these giants will be in the bracket. But if France’s squad selection or form stutters, there’s room for a lower side (Ukraine, Iceland) to complicate. France rarely misfires, but a combination of injuries, fatigue, and complacency might cost them direct placement. At the moment, France had their successful debut against Ukraine, signaling a strong start against grim odds. For them, it's not over until the final whistle, and we’ll surely see them battle with everything they’ve got, even before the World Cup.
Switzerland, Sweden, and a messy fight
In their group, Switzerland and Sweden often battle for number one. Sweden’s youth and hunger may edge it, especially if Switzerland mismanages rotation or underestimates certain ties. If Switzerland slips, Sweden may take the group, and Switzerland will be fighting for a play‑off slot. In that same group, Slovenia or Kosovo could spoil matches. Those upsets could shift momentum.
Poland and the Netherlands are in a mixed group
In Group G, the Netherlands or Poland are the favorites, but Finland’s disciplined football and occasional surprises might upset the standings. Poland has more consistency lately, yet mental errors or off‑days could cost them direct qualification. If the Netherlands stumbles, Poland might top; if Poland slips, the Netherlands or Finland might sneak in. A surprise here is not out of the question.